SAC PRELIMINARY STATEMENT

"It is now just over a year since the third episode of lava dome growth began. The main event during this period was the collapse of the dome on 20 May 2006. This event removed the whole dome that had grown since August 2005 and most of the remnants of the 2003 dome within the crater, including the one that stood above Gage’s valley. A volume of about 100 million cubic metres of lava was removed, which is about half that involved in the 12 July 2003 collapse, but still makes this the second largest collapse of the whole eruption. The explosions that accompanied the collapse sent ash to a height of 20 kilometres, the highest so far recorded for Soufriere Hills.

Lava began to form a new dome within hours of the collapse on 20 May 2006 at a high extrusion rate of about ten cubic metres per second. This rate subsequently declined and in August has been at a rate of about five cubic metres per second. The dome has been growing rapidly such that it’s top is now about 900 metres above sea level and has a volume of about 55 million cubic metres, similar in size to that of March 2006. There have been a few minor collapse events since, such as on 30 June and 29 August.

If the rapid rate of growth continues, without major collapse, then the dome will reach a sufficient size to overtop the crater rim within a few months. If the direction of dome lobe growth at that time is to the north or west then small dome collapse events sending pyroclastic flows into the Gage’s or Tyer’s Ghauts will become a possibility once again. However, the 20 May collapse event and its aftermath leads us to believe that the likelihood of future wholesale dome collapses down the Tar River Valley has increased. Such collapses would have the effect of temporarily removing the pyroclastic flow hazard to the north and west, as after 20 May.

We do not yet see any changes in the nature of the lava being extruded in this third episode compared to earlier episodes. The long-term deformation of the ground around the volcano suggests that the way magma is leaving the deep reservoir is the same as seen in the second episode of dome growth. These two observations indicate that the supply of magma continues as it has throughout the eruption. We still see no sign of the end of the eruption, but we also see nothing to indicate that the eruption could generate explosions very much larger than before.

A full report of the hazards and detailed risk assessment for a year ahead will follow."

Photos, courtesy of MVO, show the dome on 5 September 2006

NEW ALERT LEVELS FOR VOLCANIC ACTIVITY

• 0 Background seismicity with no new surface manifestation of volcanic activity. Volcanic activity is very low.

• 1 Low-level local seismicity, ongoing ground deformation. May be mild phreatic activity. Volcanic activity is low. MVO closely monitoring for increased activity. Make sure you are familiar with the Risk Map and Guide to Volcanic Hazards.

• 2 Dome building in progress, confined within crater or small to moderate phreatic or non-magmatic explosions. Low to moderate levels of rockfall activity, pyroclastic flows and associated light ash fall. Low to moderate long-period seismicity, with insignificant or lowlevels of swarms or tremor and no sudden changes or persistent escalation. May include shortpauses in measureable dome growth. Activity has increased. The Government will be taking steps to keep the public informed on the situation, ensuring that the sirens work and that the public understands the siren system. Make sure you are familiar with the Risk Map and Guide to Volcanic Hazards RADIO ZJB IS THE SOURCE FOR REGULAR UPDATES AND ADVICE

• 3 Confined dome growing rapidly, or growing to the west or north; or, unconfined dome growing towards the east or south. Dome may be changing its direction of growth, or there may be high levels of gas or long-period seismicity, or moderate levels of swarms or tremor. May be moderate to high levels of rockfalls and pyroclastic flows with associated light to moderate ash fall. This level of activity could include pyroclastic flows and light to moderate ash falls. There will be increased Government public information on the situation. Government will also be reviewing their evacuation procedures and plans. Continued testing of the siren system. Read your Guide to Volcanic Hazards. YOU SHOULD BE LISTENING TO RADIO ZJB FOR REGULAR UPDATES AND ADVICE

• 4 Large unconfined dome actively growing towards the north or west; or, large dome with: high levels of pyroclastic flow activity in other directions and/or high rates of dome growth; or intense earthquake swarms or tremor; or with tropical storm imminent or already affecting the island. Increased activity or potential for serious activity that could affect inhabited areas. Evacuation of persons and/or restrictions on movement is very likely. Read your Guide to Volcanic Hazards YOU SHOULD BE LISTENING TO RADIO ZJB FOR REGULAR UPDATES AND ADVICE.

• 5 Major dome collapse is under way with large pyroclastic flows and heavy ash fall. Explosive event possible if the activity continues. Or, existence of other obvious signs or strongly accelerating activity potentially indicative of imminent explosive eruption. Highly hazardous eruption underway or imminent. Evacuation of persons and/or restrictions on movement is very likely. Read your Guide to Volcanic Hazards YOU SHOULD BE LISTENING TO RADIO ZJB FOR REGULAR UPDATES AND ADVICE.

MONTSERRAT'S SUMMER SCHOOL PROGRAMME

Over 150 children attended the two week workshop which was held in August. Each child attending could choose two activities from a long list of choices which included basketball, dancing, drama, drumming, flower design, folk singing, gymnastics, leather crafts, music, and videography. The Governor's Office in Montserrat sponsored the videography workshop which saw the children producing cartoons as well as tourism promotion clips.

The workshop finished with an exhibition and concert where the youngsters could show off their talents. This event sent out a strong message from the youth about the problems facing Montserrat today from their own perspective.

CENTRE HILLS PROJECT MOVES FORWARD

The aim of the consultations are to ensure that there is a proper management plan for the Centre Hills and that everyone with interest in the area can air their points of view on the project.

The Centre Hills Project was launched a little over a year ago and aims to enable Montserratians and residents of the island to conserve the Centre Hills and to establish suitable protection policies that are cost effective and also fit into the island's socio-economic structure.

Collaborating agencies include the Government of Montserrat, The Montserrat Tourist Board, The Montserrat National Trust, The Darwin Initiative, The Durrell Wildlife Conservation, The Royal Botanical Gardens in Kew, and the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds. These agencies have pointed out that the Centre Hills must be properly managed and protected for the use and enjoyment of future generations in Montserrat.

TWO CHEVENING SCHOLARSHIPS AWARDED TO MONTSERATIANS

They are Civil Servants, Mr Courtney Crump who will study for an MSc at Kingston University and Mr Darryll Herbert who will study for an MSc at Leeds University.

Both candidates will leave Montserrat shortly to take up their courses.

Chevening Scholarships are provided by the FCO in conjunction with the private sector and Universities in Britain and are aimed at students with a first degree desirous of completing a higher education.

As Mr Crump and Mr Herbert leave the island, last year’s Chevening Scholar Mr Joseph Irish of Woodlands will be returning home from Bradford University where he has been studying for an MSc in Project Planning & Management.

The Governor’s Office has extended to Mr Crump and Mr Herbert congratulations on receiving their scholarships.